The Daily Parker

The eaves on the west side of my house have a row of impressive-looking icicles that I expect will come crashing down on my driveway over the next few hours. Though the temperature hasn't crested freezing yet, it's gone up slowly since midnight at my house and a bit more rapidly elsewhere nearby.

It's possible that my outdoor thermometer isn't responding to changes in temperature as quickly as it should, as you can probably guess. It's in a box on this table:

As of this morning, 33.6% of the continental US has snow cover, which makes the snow cover map look a lot more like late January than early December:

A meme going around claims this is the most snow cover we've had since 2005, but I couldn't confirm that claim. It's still quite a bit above normal for this time of year, though.

Another effect of all the moisture in the air this week is that the lowest forecast sky cover is 33% on Sunday afternoon—when it will be, if we're lucky, -12°C. Lovely.

Global warming—anthropogenic climate change—has warmed the entire planet, on average, about 2.6°C above the pre-industrial baseline. Last year was the warmest since global records began in 1850. In fact, the 10 warmest years since 1850 were the 10 years between 2015 and 2024. The north-central US, where I live, experienced some of the highest relative temperatures of anywhere on earth.

That doesn't mean it's hot every day. What it actually means is that the atmosphere has more heat generally, and thus more energy and more capacity to hold moisture. We'll still get cold weather; we just won't get as much of it. But we don't need super-cold air to make winter a miserable character-building experience for Chicago. We just need lots of snow.

And through the first full week of meteorological winter ending 10½ hours ago, we've gotten more snow than we've ever gotten this early, barring the worst winter of the 20th century, 1978-79, when snow remained on the ground for 51 days straight:

• In Chicago, there have been 9 days with measurable (at least 2.5 mm/0.1") snowfall between November 9 and December 7, including four days with at least 25 mm (1") of snow.
• As of December 7, 2025, Chicago has picked up 434 mm (17.1") of snow so far this snowfall season.
• During the winter of 2024-2025, 447 mm (17.6") of snow fell in Chicago. So, Chicago has already experienced nearly the same amount as snow as the entirety of the last winter season!
• This is the quickest start to winter since 1978, when 612 mm (24.1") of snow fall by December 7.
• This appears to be the 4th most snowfall on record through December 7.
• The average seasonal snowfall in Chicago is 942 mm (37.1").

Block Club Chicago piles on:

Last weekend, Chicagoans saw the snowiest November day ever, with 213 mm (8.4") of fresh powder blanketing the city on Nov. 29. Meteorological winter begins Dec. 1, but the weather service tracks “snowfall season” by the first significant snowfall of the season, which can happen as early as October or November.

Temperatures are expected to peak into the low 40s [Fahrenheit, ~5°C] on Tuesday and scattered rain/snow flurries are expected on Wednesday, when the high will near 40 degrees [Fahrenheit, 4°C].

More cold air will move into the region next week, with temperatures expected to plummet into the teens, Yack said. Some storm systems could bring snow then, but predictions are fuzzy nearly a week out, he said.

The rain and above-freezing temperatures tomorrow and Wednesday will probably not melt all of the 200 mm of snow still on the ground, and the meltwater won't really have anyplace else to go, so when the temperature plunges below freezing Wednesday evening and keeps descending to a forecast -14°C (6°F) Saturday night, we could be looking at some pretty horrendous conditions on the roads and sidewalks. (Cue the puzzled look from Cassie as I struggle to walk on two legs while she has no trouble on four.)

We still have 82½ days of winter left. Thanks to cool (but not too-cool) water off the coast of Ecuador, this one is going to really suck.

The forecast as late as yesterday morning called for 25-50 mm of snow. We got over 100 mm:

Of course, someone loves snow a lot more than I do:

And she made a new friend:

Fortunately, I don't have anywhere particular to be today, so I don't have to drive in this stuff. And looking ahead to the revised prediction of 3°C and rain on Wednesday, I expect most of the snow will melt before I wake up Thursday morning—just in time for it to freeze solid as the temperature falls to -9°C Thursday evening and -14°C Friday.

A weak La Niña has already started affecting the weather in the United States, as this week's cold snap demonstrates. Weak La Niña events typically cause cooler, wetter winters in Chicago. Last night's temperature got down to -12.8°C (9°F), just a few degrees above the coldest December 5th on record. Normal for today would be 4.3°C (39.8°F); this godawful cold is 5°C below the normal low for the coldest day of the year, January 24th.

Fortunately the forecast this weekend calls for more seasonable temperatures near freezing, but it'll come with some more snow. Joy.

As I haven't got a lot going on until Monday, I hope to make more progress on the replacement for BlogEngine.NET I've been working on for a while. Over the last week I got it to the point where it shows blog entries and imports them from this version. Next up: image uploading and resizing. Right now it shows images at full size no matter how wide your screen is. That's sub-optimal, especially on mobile devices.

I'm not ready to release the link for the work-in-progress yet. Let me get a few more features done first. Next week, Monday through Sunday, will include two full Messiah rehearsals and two performances, but after that I should have lots of time through the beginning of January to work on the new project.

As forecast, the temperature dropped steadily from 3:30 pm Monday until finally bottoming out at -5.6°C (22°F) just after sunset yesterday. It's crept up slowly since then, up to -2.5°C (27.5°F) a few minutes ago. C'mon, you can do it! Just a little farther to reach freezing! Because the forecast for tomorrow morning (-13°C/9°F) does not look great. At least we'll see the sun for a few hours.

You know what else is cold? My feelings toward the OAFPOTUS. I'm not alone:

• Peter Hamby looks back on the OAFPOTUS's recent election endorsements and wonders why any sane Republican would want one.
• Paul Krugman draws a straight line between Calvin Coolidge and the OAFPOTUS, as neither president believed that the US government has any business helping disaster victims. (NB: all the presidents between them emphatically did.)
• Matt Ford chuckles quietly at the brilliance of Costco's lawsuit to claw back the taxes they've paid under the OAFPOTUS's illegal tariff policies.
• Amanda Nelson continues her examination of the more unhinged parts of Project 2025 that the OAFPOTUS and his droogs are actually implementing, looking at the ongoing degradation of the Federal Trade Commission under Adam Candeub.
• Todd Zwillich gives a thumbs-up to US Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and the other lawmakers with intelligence and military backgrounds whose November 19th video teed up the OAFPOTUS's and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's self-owns on the law of war.
• Matt Yglesias reminds both parties that immigration is good for the United States, so cut out both the talk of "remigration" and all the ridiculous land acknowledgements.
• Jeff Maurer laments the decline of comedy movies, and offers six theories about why they died.

Finally, today is the 60th anniversary of The Beatles releasing Rubber Soul in the UK. It's always been one of my favorite albums, and not just from The Beatles. I finished re-watching the 5th season of Mad Men a few nights ago, so I've been trying to put myself back in the 1960s to imagine what revelations the 1965 and 1966 Beatles albums would have been (Help!, Rubber Soul, and Revolver)—not to mention how much the Fab Four's own sound changed in that 12-month period between 6 August 1965 and 5 August 1966.

Before listening to Rubber Soul one more time, though, I have a dog to walk.

As the cold air mass to the north of us drifts southeast, Chicago has gotten colder. Today's high temperature was at midnight, both at Inner Drive Technology World HQ and at O'Hare, though the National Weather Service has teased us with predictions of above-freezing temperatures tomorrow, followed by the coldest day since February 20th.

Cassie may not get a proper walk on Thursday until I pick her up from school. (Heck, I might not either.) At least being at school will give her some time to bounce around like a dog.

This makes me nervous. Usually this early we get some snow and it melts after a few days. But some years, like 2013-14, we get snow that won't ever leave. The record for consecutive days with 25 mm of snow on the ground was 1978-79, with 98 days. The winter of 2013-14 comes in 4th at 80 days, but the recency effect makes it feel worse.

As happens every December 1st, winter has begun. It's the first of 63 days with a 7am sunrise or later. And yet that's not as depressing as some of these stories:

• Jennifer Rubin argues (as do most lawyers with military backgrounds) that any order from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to kill survivors of a boat the US Navy attacked would violate US law, international law, the law of war, and the US Law of War Manual, not to mention being morally abhorrent.
• An appeals court has ruled that Alina Habba's interim appointment as US Attorney for the District of New Jersey violated Federal law, potentially voiding every action of her office back to July 24th. This follows the disqualification of Lindsey Halligan two weeks ago.
• Sarah Lazarus imagines Robert F Kennedy, Jr's, holiday gift guide.
• In a post from October 28th, writer Adam Mastroianni blames "the decline of deviance" for the dearth of creativity in the world.

Finally, vendors at downtown Chicago's Chirstkinlemarket are furious with the city imposing a cap of 1,500 shoppers at a time, since raised to 2,500, as it's well under the 3,500 allowed during the pandemic-era 2021 market. “While we are working to address crowding issues at the Christkindlmarket, this level of restrictions poses an existential threat to the Christkindlmarket and the hundreds of artisans, performers, seasonal workers and businesses who depend on the visitors it brings to Downtown Chicago,” the German American Chamber of Commerce of the Midwest, which organizes the event, said in a statement. I'll swing by next week when the temperature is a bit higher than this coming Thursday and see if it has made a difference.

Back to the mines. And sunset in half an hour. At least we should see the sun on Thursday.

We got 220 mm (8.6 in) of snow at O'Hare by 6am today, which means the storm dumped more on us than on any November day in history (earlier reported as the worst in almost 10 years):

As of 6 p.m., 6.9 inches (175 mm) of snow had fallen at O’Hare and 5.5 (140 mm) at Midway, making it the heaviest single-day snowfall since Nov. 21 2015, when 7 inches fell at O’Hare, according to the National Weather Service.

O’Hare had been predicting its busiest Thanksgiving week ever, despite the FAA recently lifting flight restrictions across the country during the country’s longest government shutdown. More than 1.63 million travelers were expected to pass through O’Hare during the seven-day Thanksgiving period through Monday.

Sunday is expected to be the peak travel day at O’Hare, with up to 290,000 passengers arriving. The snow is expected to fall through Sunday morning, snarling travel for those returning home from Thanksgiving. Another snow system could move in Monday night.

The Chicago area could see up to 10 inches (254 mm) of snow by the time the storms move out of the area, said National Weather Service meteorologist Kevin Donofrio.

Also according to the National Weather Service, "This was the greatest storm total snowfall since 10.8" (275 mm) fell from January 30-31, 2021."

Another round of snowfall is due tomorrow evening. I guess I won't be dining alfresco on my patio tonight:

And after running (or porpoising) through snow that comes up to her chest for an hour yesterday, Cassie had a relaxing evening:

It's nice when you can plan for severe weather.

It's snowed nearly all day, lightly at first but turning a lot worse after noon. Since the temperature has stayed right around -1°C it wasn't a problem to give Cassie some off-leash time at the local park:

She even made new friends:

And you'd think after 9 hours of snowfall, my rain gauge might have registered some precipitation. I wonder what the trouble could be?

As of noon we had 76 mm of snow officially at O'Hare. I expect it'll be more than double that when the 6pm report comes out. About an hour after that, my big pot of beef stew will be ready. And the forecast predicts the snowfall should start to taper off after 2am and skies should clear up by tomorrow night.

Hey, it's the last two days of autumn. We were due.

Cassie and I hauled out to Far Suburbistan and met friends (one dog, one human) for a 4.7-km walk around the St James Farm Forest Preserve:

Because I wanted to get groceries ahead of tomorrow's snowfall, poor Cassie had to suffer in the car for about 3 hours. Don't feel bad: my friend had tons of leftovers from yesterday, so Cassie got enough turkey to last her until dinner next Thursday. She's now plotzed on the couch.

She doesn't know it yet, but we're about to go for another walk. My 77-day streak of 10,000+ steps may come to an end tomorrow, but I'm not going to give up my 7-year streak of 70,000+ steps per week.