With yesterday's temperatures more like April than January, Chicago magazine's explanation of it is timely:

So what is going on? It's the warmest La Niña on record. That brings the global temperature down, but causes different effects in different places. Chicago is going through a near-record warm spell—strong La Niñas correlate with above average temperatures, like the 18°C we hit in 1989 when the mean January max was 11°C, 2°C higher than this month's mean. Meanwhile, Alaska and northern Europe are suffering through deadly cold snaps.

This came to me through the WGN weather blog, which in the same story points out that groundhogs are less accurate than random chance at predicting the weather. Just a heads-up for tomorrow.

The normal temperatures in Chicago for January 31st are a low of -8.3°C and a high of 0°C.

Right now, the temperature is 13°C; the low last night was 7°C

The normal temperatures in Chicago for April 9th are a low of 2°C and a high of 13°C.

That is all.

Via Sullivan, a snippet of conversation between Bob Dole and Newt Gingrich in the 1990s:

"Why do people take such an instant dislike to me?" asked a perplexed Gingrich, to whom Dole bluntly explained: "Because it saves them time."

In unrelated news, Parker and I are about to walk around in abnormally warm, sunny weather on what is statistically the coldest day of the year in Chicago. This is the warmest winter in 78 years, with the fewest sub-freezing maximum temperatures in 40 years. (Today was above freezing until a cold front edged through this morning; right now it's -1°C.)

Chicago is experiencing the mildest winter in 78 years, which means anyone complaining about the weather lately needs serious mocking:

Though this season has produced some wintry moments, last Friday's snowstorm among them, the vast majority of days---82 percent of them---have posted above normal temperatures. What's more, we could find only 11 winters of the past 141 for which official weather records exist, which have been milder up to this point in time.

Chicago's average temperature since Dec. 1 is running 0.2°C, well above the 141-year average of -2.9°C and a stunning 6.3°C warmer than the same period a year ago. That's a difference which suggests many Chicago area residents have required 17 percent less home heating.

A multi-day burst of frigid arctic air heads into the area in waves late this week into the coming weekend. Any one of them, if fully developed, could produce several inches of snow. The first is due later Friday into Friday night---a second swings into the area just ahead of sharp cooling predicted Saturday into Saturday night.

The arctic chill will come and go fairly expeditiously, as has been the case with previous cold spells all season.

The mild disappointment Parker might feel about our weather this winter does not bother me at all. In Chicago, we say our weather builds character. After [redacted] Chicago winters in my lifetime, with a few in New York, Lisbon, and Raleigh for comparison, I'll take one year off from character-building happily.

I'm at O'Hare for the first time this year, wicked early for my flight. This happened because I left lots of time to dig my car out, get Parker sorted, get to the airport, etc. As it turns out, the howling wind cleared my car overnight; there was no traffic; the main roads are already clear because, really, it wasn't that much snow; and when I got to remote parking, an enormous pickup truck pulled out of a parking space, leaving a patch of cleared ground the size of Connecticut. So...I brought a Kindle, and my flight is on time. No stress, no worries, no checked baggage.

Working at home today (thus the earlier post with the dog). This is why:

The National Weather Service says it might melt on Sunday.

If Parker could have read this, he'd have been looking forward to this all day:

Yes, I know, I've posted remarkably similar videos before. Who cares? It's a dog having fun in the snow, which I think has universal appeal.

My team are all working from home today because we have the technology to do so, and we saw this:

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED.

* HAZARDS...SNOW WILL FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES RESULTING IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED TRAVEL TIMES...RESULTING IN A PARTICULARLY TREACHEROUS COMMUTE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS WILL MAKE SALT LESS EFFECTIVE AND COMBINE WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES TO MAKE IT HARDER FOR ROAD CREWS TO KEEP ROADS CLEAR OF SNOW AND ICE. THE SNOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DISRUPTIONS TO AIR TRAVEL AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

Parker is also working from home. If he could read, his attitude toward the weather warning might differ slightly from mine. On the other hand, we're both in the same room, which I think makes him happy anyway.

Updates and photos as events warrant.

We're having a very odd winter. After bottoming out at -15°C just yesterday, the temperature in Chicago has climbed past 6°C and it's getting warmer. Here's one consequence, which you can compare to Thursday:

Today's forecast calls for rain and 8°C; the record for January 16 is 14°C.

...at least for a few days. From last night in Chicago:

And:

Here's the view at 11:30. Contrast with an hour earlier:

And here's 2pm:

4pm:

The first significant snowfall of Winter 2012 has started:

The National Weather Service says:

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM CST /10 AM EST/ THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST /10 AM EST/ FRIDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 200 MM ARE LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE.

* HAZARDS...IN ADDITION TO THE FALLING SNOW...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 40 KM/H WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 KM/H BY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN OUTLYING AND OPEN AREAS. WIND CHILLS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO DROP TO -17°C TO -24°C BY FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT FOR THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE TODAY...WITH TRAVEL CONDITIONS BECOMING TREACHEROUS AND EVEN DANGEROUS IN OPEN AREAS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

As bad as that sounds, the NWS also predicts it'll be gone by Monday.

Hey, it's Chicago in January, and yesterday it hit 12°C. One or two days of snowfall is no big deal.

More photos as the snow accumulates...

The forecast for Chicago today calls for 13°C temperatures and sunny skies. This is the normal high temperature April 10th, not January 10th—that would be -1°C—and would be only a bit shy of the record (16°C).

Don't worry, January will arrive this weekend. The same forecast calls for -9°C Friday night.

Not just here, where we're looking forward to 10°C on New Year's Eve to complete a streak of 21 days above normal temperatures,, but also Northern Europe:

Britons getting ready to ring in 2012 can expect highs of up to 15°C after a year of unusually mild weather.

Forecasters said the past 12 months have been the second warmest for the UK after 2006, in which the average temperature reached 9.73°C. The average for 2011 was just a shade lower at 9.62°C.

It comes after the warmest April and spring on record, the second warmest autumn and the warmest October day.

The U.K. also had its warmest temperature in five years on June 27th, when Gravesend, Kent, hit 33.1°C. Pretty soon Britons will need air conditioners.

But there's no anthropogenic climate change happening. None at all.

Even though we still have two weeks to go, 2011 has already experienced the costliest year of weather disasters in decades:

From extreme drought, heat waves and floods to unprecedented tornado outbreaks, hurricanes, wildfires and winter storms, a record 12 weather and climate disasters in 2011 each caused $1 billion or more in damages — and most regrettably, loss of human lives and property.

The Illinois State Climatologist adds:

We also experienced some $50 billion in total losses for the year. And that is with a fairly quiet hurricane season. Some of those billion dollar disasters had direct impacts on Illinois, including the February blizzard, and the spring flooding.

NOAA has art:

For photos from the first weather disaster of 2011, check out our archives.

We finally got our first measurable snowfall of the 2011-12 winter:

It's official. We got our first measurable snow early this morning. O'Hare reported 13 mm of fresh snow. 2011 now ties 1948 as the year with the 5th latest first measurable snow for a winter season. We now join more than a third of the country with snow cover. The National Snow Analysis from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center reports that as of yesterday, 37.3% of the US had snow cover with an average depth of 45 mm.

I like how almost all of Illinois is snow-free, except for that tiny bit around Chicago. Hm. Anyway, it looks like La Niña is doing its thing this year, so we will probably have a warmer, wetter winter than usual. As long as it doesn't look like this.

Chicago might get measurable snowfall tonight, which would be the fourth-latest first fall in history and the first since April 18th:

Though flurries have been observed within the city limits four times this month and seven times since the snow season began this year on Nov. 9, the only "measurable snow" which has fallen has been across the northern suburbs.

That may change as a light-snow-generating disturbance swings across the metro area Thursday night. The system's approach will become more and more evident Thursday as sunshine is filtered by an influx of clouds out ahead of the disturbance's light snow, particularly Thursday afternoon and evening.

But:

If there's a snowstorm in Chicago's future the next two weeks, there is NO computer model consensus on it at this point. That can change fairly quickly this time of year. But for now, Thursday night's wave of light snowfall is the only definitive snow threat the metro area faces in the short term.

I had planned to visit the Tokyo National Museum today, and possibly one of the other museums at Ueno Park, but then this happened:

Yes, a sunny autumn day with the temperature passing 21°C simply did not allow me to go inside. I spent a few hours just walking around Ueno-Koen, encountering the local fauna:

More fauna:

Oh, and hey, my camera shoots video:

(Apologies for the jerkiness; I was hand-holding a 250mm lens.)

Via the Chicago Tribune, NASA launched a new weather satellite in October that provides incredible high-resolution images of the planet:

VIIRS will collect radiometric imagery in visible and infrared wavelengths of the Earth's land, atmosphere, and oceans. By far the largest instrument onboard NPP, VIIRS weighs about 556 pounds (252 kilograms). Its data, collected from 22 channels across the electromagnetic spectrum, will be used to observe the Earth's surface including fires, ice, ocean color, vegetation, clouds, and land and sea surface temperatures.

During NPP's five-year life, the mission will extend more than 30 key long-term datasets that include measurements of the atmosphere, land and oceans. NASA has been tracking many of these properties for decades. NPP will continue measurements of land surface vegetation, sea surface temperature, and atmospheric ozone that began more than 25 years ago.

NASA has more information about the satellite mission and a gorgeous photo (8MB jpeg) of the East Coast.

My weather demo, Weather Now, is 13 years old today. I launched it as an ASP 2.0 application on 11 November 1998.

The Wayback Machine first crawled the site about a year later, on 20 September 2000. Check out the site's evolution; it's trippy.

The temperature finally got down to freezing at O'Hare, which is the latest freeze recorded there since records started in 1958:

With widespread freezing temperatures across the Chicago metro area, Friday's official low temperature reading at the O'Hare observation site should bottom out well below 0°C --- marking the first time readings there have dropped below that mark since April 1st. It also marks the latest in the season the first 0°C temperature has been observed at that site since it was established in 1959.

(Tom Skilling errs in two places here. First, the O'Hare site opened on 1 November 1958; second, while he's correct that the temperature last dropped below 0°C on April 1st, it only reached 0°C last night.)

The forecast calls for temperatures as high as 16°C this weekend, followed by...winter.

• Two of my Duke classmates;
• Crystal Bowersox;
• Snow (which, in the last five minutes, has disappeared in favor of crystal clear blue skies); and
• An aggressive batch of chicken soup that, about an hour and a half ago, destroyed my laptop.

Three out of four is, all things considered, a good average.

If you're in Chicago, wear layers:

The latest fall storm's "warm sector"—a prod of mild air which floods up the east side of many storms, often fueling t-storms while wrapping moisture into such systems' backside snows—is to send a brief but noticeable surge of warm into at least a portion of the metro area—primarily from the city and south suburban locations Wednesday morning. Some 16°C temperatures are possible before winds shift west and strengthen, sending temperatures diving the remainder of Wednesday into Thursday.

If the scenario unfolds as currently predicted, falling temperatures will take readings from 14.5°C lower by mid and late afternoon, situating readings near freezing at a number of locations before sunset. These would be the coldest daytime readings since April.

Check out the Tribune's graphic. Tomorrow I'll publish the actual temperatures to see how close they were.

For those keeping score, the last freezing temperature we had in Chicago occurred April 21st, but the last below-freezing reading was back on April 1st.

No, not my student loan; my horological one. I might be alone here, but the return of standard time means I get the hour back that I loaned out in March. It also means I don't have to wake up before dawn any more—at least for a couple of weeks. Even Parker seems to like the "fall back." At least, he had the decency not to wake me up until 7:30am.

For most of the U.S. and Canada, today's was the earliest sunrise until February 28th. Unfortunately, today's sunset will the earliest since January 10th, as we enter the 12 or so weeks of afternoon gloom.

On the third hand (I missed my calling as an economist), Chicago's weather today is crisp and sunny, and Parker needs some walks.

Today the city of Chicago finally got around to building emergency turnarounds on Lake Shore Drive, on which hundreds of cars got stranded last Feburary:

Both escape routes are on the near North Side - one will be at Armitage; the other at Schiller. Chicago Department of Transportation officials say those spots were chosen because they're prone to snow drifts.

They will create turnaround access to north and southbound lanes during emergency situations, like last February's 20 inches of snow blizzard. Drivers and vehicles were stranded on the Drive for hours.

It's not clear how these two turnarounds would have helped in February, though I suppose more cars would have gotten off the road before it became completely impassable.

Here's another look at the gorgeous weather that shut the Drive. Can't wait for more this winter!

Despite tons of research that support the anthropomorphic climate change theory, some people persist in the belief that the data does not support it. And yet, this week, there's more data:

[A] new study of current data and analysis by Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature...estimates that over the past 50 years the land surface warmed by 0.911°C: a mere 2% less than NOAA’s estimate. That is despite its use of a novel methodology—designed, at least in part, to address the concerns of what its head, Richard Muller, terms “legitimate sceptics”. ... At a time of exaggerated doubts about the instrumental temperature record, this should help promulgate its main conclusion: that the existing mean estimates are in the right ballpark. That means the world is warming fast.

My trouble with climate-change skeptics remains the same, a question about economic incentives. I guess I just don't understand why people persist in irrational beliefs when the evidence weighs so clearly towards an incompatible conclusion. In the case of quotidien religion, I live and let live. But in the case of anthropomorphic climate change, I don't get it. If climate scientists are right, and we cut emissions and energy use to slow climate change, we all win. If climate scientists are wrong, and we cut emissions and energy use to no effect, we're out maybe a billion dollars—about 3 cents per person, worldwide. But turn it around: if climate scientists are right, and we do nothing, say goodbye to Hollywood (Florida). And if climate scientists are wrong, and we do nothing, we'll still have the health and cosmetic effects of all those carbon emissions to deal with—and we'll still likely run out of oil in two centuries, after giving all our wealth to people who hate us.

So somebody, please, explain whence the hostility to the theory comes? Because it seems to me like the hostility farmers had to being jabbed with cowpox pus in the 1780s. Of course it's unpleasant, but wow is it better than the alternative.

No, not for the Chicago Marathon, currently underway a city block from me. (Parker and I were cheering the runners on for the past hour.)

Rather, Chicago yesterday set a record for most consecutive days with 100% sunshine since records began in the 1870s:

With 100 percent sunshine today, it marks the 7th straight such day this month - tying the old record set back in October 10-16, 1934. A new October record could be set, if [Sunday], as forecast, turns out to be another day with 100 percent sunshine.

Of course, "Chicago's all-time record for consecutive days with 100 percent sunshine is 10 - set back on July 21-30, 1916," a record we're not likely to break this week as a cold front will hit us Wednesday and return us to autumn.

It doesn't feel like autumn yet, with all that sunshine and a high yesterday of 28°C (and 29°C on Thursday).

That's OK. We'll take it. Parker got two hours of walks yesterday; today he might get three.

We're having our sixth consecutive day of cloudless skies and warm temperatures. No one's complaining:

Thursday's fifth consecutive 100 percent sunny day was the longest such spell of any here over the past 18 years

There wasn't a cloud in the sky Thursday. It led to Chicago being credited with 100 percent of its possible sunshine for a fifth consecutive day. A check of weather records here reveals it's the first set of five completely sunny days in 18 years.

In an average year, 46 days (13 percent of them) in Chicago record 100 percent of their possible sun. Conversely, 44 days (12 percent) see no sun because of clouds.

The sun and warmth are expected to continue through Wednesday. Why, then, am I sitting inside?

A "cutoff low" parked over southern Lake Michigan Saturday night, giving Chicago unseasonably cool temperatures and non-stop rain for days:

Precipitation within the storm has been "convective" at times--in other words, it's been the product of towering cumulus clouds. The overcast breaks at times in such an environment as air sinks on the periphery of such showers and this permits spells of passing sun. Veteran observer Frank Wachowski reports 48 minutes of sunlight occurred in Chicago Tuesday and the appearance of sun amid the showers has led to a flurry of stunning rainbow sightings in recent days.

The preponderance of cloudiness has taken a toll on Chicago area temperatures. September 2011 ranks the area's coolest in 10 years. The failure of daytime highs at O'Hare the past six days to reach 18°C makes the period the first since observations began there in 1959 to produce so many sub-18°C days in September.

The ejection of the stubborn upper air low is finally in sight. A southward plunge of chilly, early-season arctic air is forcing jet stream winds to buckle southward out of Canada the next few days. The powerful steering winds will finally "pick the closed system up" and lift it out of the Midwest Wednesday night.

Oh, goody. The rain will go away over the weekend, replaced by early-November temperatures hovering around 10°C. (I like cool weather. Most of my readers do not. Oh well.)

The Weather Channel posted a NOAA video showing the low forming, and then stalling, right on top of us.

It's crystal-clear and 22°C, so I've spent the day walking Parker.

Regular updates will resume once the weather deteriorates.

I'm David Braverman, this is my blog, and Parker is my 5-year-old mutt. I last updated this About... page in February, but some things have changed. In the interest of enlightened laziness I'm starting with the most powerful keystroke combination in the universe: Ctrl-C, Ctrl-V.

Twice. Thus, the "point one" in the title.

The Daily Parker is about:

• Parker, my dog, whom I adopted on 1 September 2006.
• Politics. I'm a moderate-lefty by international standards, which makes me a radical left-winger in today's United States.
• Photography. I took tens of thousands of photos as a kid, then drifted away from making art until a few months ago when I got the first digital camera I've ever had that rivals a film camera. That got me reading more, practicing more, and throwing more photos on the blog. In my initial burst of enthusiasm I posted a photo every day. I've pulled back from that a bit—it takes about 30 minutes to prep and post one of those puppies—but I'm still shooting and still learning.
• The weather. I've operated a weather website for more than ten years. That site deals with raw data and objective observations. Many weather posts also touch politics, given the political implications of addressing climate change, though happily we no longer have to do so under a president beholden to the oil industry.
• Chicago, the greatest city in North America, and the other ones I visit whenever I can.

I've deprecated the Software category, but only because I don't post much about it here. That said, I write a lot of software. I work for 10th Magnitude, a startup software consultancy in Chicago, I've got about 20 years experience writing the stuff, and I continue to own a micro-sized software company. (I have an online resume, if you're curious.) I see a lot of code, and since I often get called in to projects in crisis, I see a lot of bad code, some of which may appear here.

I strive to write about these and other things with fluency and concision. "Fast, good, cheap: pick two" applies to writing as much as to any other creative process (cf: software). I hope to find an appropriate balance between the three, as streams of consciousness and literacy have always struggled against each other since the first blog twenty years ago.

If you like what you see here, you'll probably also like Andrew Sullivan, James Fallows, Josh Marshall, and Bruce Schneier. Even if you don't like my politics, you probably agree that everyone ought to read Strunk and White, and you probably have an opinion about the Oxford comma—punctuation de rigeur in my opinion.

Another, non-trivial point. Facebook reads the blog's RSS feed, so many people reading this may think I'm just posting notes on Facebook. Facebook's lawyers would like you to believe this, too. Now, I've reconnected with tons of old friends and classmates through Facebook, I play Scrabble on Facebook, and I eagerly read every advertisement that appears next to its relevant content. But Facebook's terms of use assert ownership of everything that appears on their site, regardless of prior claims, which contravenes four centuries of law.

Everything that shows up on my Facebook profile gets published on The Daily Paker first, and I own the copyrights to all of it (unless otherwise disclosed). I publish the blog's text under a Creative Commons attribution-nonderivative-noncommercial license; republication is usually OK for non-commercial purposes, as long as you don't change what I write and you attribute it to me. My photos, however, are published under strict copyright, with no republication license, even if I upload them to other public websites. If you want to republish one of my photos, just let me know and we'll work something out.

Anyway, thanks for reading, and I hope you continue to enjoy The Daily Parker.

One of my friends, Nature Nerd Naomi, reported that she saw frost on her roof this morning. She lives about 40 km away. And Chicago Tribune meteorologist Tom Skilling says yesterday was the coldest September 14th in 37 years:

Temperatures failed to reach 16°C at the city's official O'Hare observation site Thursday, topping out at 14.4°C instead. It's the coolest reading which has occurred there since late May and a temperature which equals the normal high on Oct. 28. But even more significantly, a review of weather records here indicates the reading was the chilliest to occur so early in the "meteorological" fall season in the 37 years since 1974.

Thursday isn't likely to be much warmer. Though readings are likely to creep into [around] 17°C at the area's warmer observation sites, the predicted O'Hare high of 14°C is close to the record low Sept. 15 maximum of 13°C set in 1993.

So just a few days ago, as I turned my air conditioner on to cool down from 30°C heat, I hoped for an early fall. But wow, I didn't expect temperatures to plunge so quickly.

Of course, on Tuesday when I'm back in San Antonio and it's 36°C, I'll be missing the cooler weather again.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported yesterday that 2011 was hot, damn hot, real hot:

The average U.S. temperature in August was 24.3°C, which is 1.7°C above the long-term (1901-2000) average, while the summertime temperature was 23.6°C, which is 1.3°C above average. The warmest August on record for the contiguous United States was 24.3°C in 1983, while its warmest summer on record at 23.7°C occurred in 1936. Precipitation across the nation during August averaged 58.7 mm, 7.4 mm inches below the long-term average. The nationwide summer precipitation was 25.4 mm below average.

Climate highlights include:

• Excessive heat in six states – Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana – resulted in their warmest August on record. This year ranked in the top ten warmest August for five other states: Florida (3rd), Georgia (4th), Utah (5th), Wyoming (8th), and South Carolina (9th).The Southwest and South also had their warmest August on record.
• Several major U.S. cities broke all-time monthly rainfall amounts during August. New York City (Central Park) measured 481.3 mm of rain, exceeding the previous record of 428 mm in 1882. In Philadelphia, 490.5 mm of rain was observed, besting the previous monthly record of 332 mm in September 1999.

So, weather extremes, a hot summer, record rainfall, and massive property damage from storms. Can't wait to see what happens this winter.

The Economist Gulliver blog makes a good case that media coverage of Irene was appropriate for the threat:

Hurricanes are serious business. They have the capacity to cause billions of dollars in damage and kill hundreds or thousands of people. They have political consequences, too—no politician wants to be blamed for a disaster the way President George W. Bush was after Hurricane Katrina. Moreover, it is very unusual for a hurricane to hit America's north-east, where around one sixth of Americans live and a quarter of the country's economic output is produced. An unusual, potentially disastrous event that was certain to affect millions of Americans and put billions of dollars of property at risk is just the sort of thing the media should be covering. Just because Irene wasn't the disaster that some Americans feared doesn't mean it wasn't important to cover it.

Another way to look at it, just because Irene didn't cause more damage doesn't mean the preparations and coverage were wrong. Just two days ago it looked like Manhattan, Queens, Nassau, Suffolk, Hoboken, and Jersey City—places where millions of people live just a few meters above sea level—could experience devastating damage from a storm surge. This is, remember, the first hurricane to hit New York City in about a century.

I'm very happy the storm did as little damage as it did. And even though it turned out to be unnecessary, I'm glad Mayor Bloomberg and Governors Cuomo and Christie took the actions they did to prepare for what looked like, earlier this weekend, an unprecedented disaster.

Breaking news:

Nearly 300,000 New York City residents were told Friday to get out of their homes in a first-ever mandatory evacuation as officials ordered an unprecedented shutdown of the city’s mass transit system for Saturday in advance of Hurricane Irene, raising the prospect of a singular scramble as hundreds of thousands of residents try to get out of the massive storm’s way.

Mayor Michael Bloomberg ordered an evacuation by 5 p.m. Saturday for low-lying areas that house about 270,000 people. Meanwhile, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said subways, buses and commuter trains in the city, on Long Island and in the northern suburbs will begin their final runs around noon Saturday.

Officials earlier ordered Fire Island evacuated, starting half an hour ago.

Hurricane Irene, currently category 2 on the Staffir-Simpson scale, looks like it's heading straight for New York City. Both the NYC and New Jersey emergency management agencies have published maps (pdf) showing the likely flood zones for various categories of hurricanes. They're scary.

I used to live in Brooklyn Heights, N.Y., and Hoboken, N.J. Both areas would be affected by a category 1 hurricane. My place in Hoboken, in fact, was only 2 m above sea level. My stuff would probably be OK—I lived on the fourth and fifth floors—but a moderate storm surge would likely flood the entire city of Hoboken, and make it impossible to live there for weeks.

I hope all my friends in the New York Metro are taking reasonable steps to protect themselves and whatever stuff they can get out. It's going to be a wet weekend in the Northeast...

Update, 13:27 CDT: New York City and the surrounding area have decided to shut down all commuter train, subway, and Amtrak service in the region starting at noon tomorrow.

We're still three weeks from meterological autumn and we've already had the wettest summer in 54 years and the second-wettest ever:

The new rains are to fall in the midst of the Chicago area's wettest meteorological summer (the period which began June 1) in 54 years. A total of 420 mm has occurred to date which makes this the second wettest summer to date since the official observational record began here in 1871. That amount is nearly twice the 140 year average to date of 219 mm.

And what do we have in today's forecast? Yup. Rain.

At least it's only getting up to 26°C this weekend. I have my windows open for only the second time since July 7th.

Last night, after getting back from San Antonio, I opened the windows for the first time in nearly six weeks. We had, I believe, one of the hottest and stickiest Julys I've ever experienced. But yesterday when I got home the temperature was 23°C and dropping—finally cooler outside my air-conditioned apartment than inside it.

Unfortunately for my colleagues down in Texas, it's no cooler there:

* forecast

I understand, however, that they have beautiful winters....

Six months ago, at North Avenue Beach in Chicago:

2 February 2011, Canon 20D at ISO-100, 1/250 at f/11, 27mm, near here.

I should have posted this photo a couple of days ago, when Chicago baked in near-40°C heat. Today's forecast calls for a mostly-pleasant 27°C under sunny skies.

Go back and relive those few days last February when it gets hot again.

The Tribune today has this graph showing the extreme precipitation we've had this year:

So far in 2011, Chicago has not only experienced its wettest year ever, but we've almost reached our annual normal rainfall total:

With the record (283 mm) July rains adding on to already above-normal precipitation prior to this month, Chicago's official total for 2011 has reached 858 mm - or 351 mm above normal at this point in the season. Chicago's official rain gage at the O'Hare International Airport observing site has now registered 93 percent of the normal annual 921 mm.

Today, however, it's sunny and clear, and not quite as hot as it has been recently.

Remember Tuesday, when we were only 13 mm away from having the wettest July in history? Thanks to a storm that dumped a squishy 259 mm of rain on nearby Dubuque, Iowa, Chicago's rainfall this month reached 248 mm, beating the old record of 243 mm set in 1889.

Today's forecast calls for even bloody more rain:

Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32°C. Heat index values as high as 37°C. Southwest wind between 10 and 15 km/h. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between 5 and 7.5 mm possible.

At 7am, the temperature of 23°C comes with a dewpoint temperature of 22°C, which is the scientific way of saying it's warm and sticky.

Let's see...warmer summers, more extreme weather, much more moisture in the atmosphere...saw that one coming.

Chicago is still experiencing weather more suited for the jungles of Cambodia:

For a 12th consecutive day Wednesday, Chicago's lows have registered 22°C or higher—the first time that's happened in 12 years and only the fourth time such a long string of warm nighttime lows has been observed at Midway Airport since 1928.

And it's still raining: another 111 mm fell on parts of the area this morning.

A weekend in Canada starts to look very appealing...

Chicago this year has not only gotten almost enough rain to hit a new record, but it's also gotten more than enough heat:

July's 230 mm of rain at O'Hare places the month only 13 mm away from July's 122 year old record of 243 mm recorded in 1889. A more typical July would have a rainfall tally closer to 67 mm by now—just a third as much as has fallen this month. ...

July's opening 26 days are averaging 26.2°C. That makes the month the warmest at O'Hare since weather readings were first archived at the site beginning in 1959. The 26.2°C average ranks as the 4th warmest July 1-26's over the full term of Chicago weather records spanning 141 years and taken at 12 different sites in the city since 1871.

Hot and wet: my favorite. (There's a joke in there somewhere...) When is October?

...to go somewhere else. Yesterday's final, official figure: 208 mm, a full 43 mm more than the rainfall that caused the record floods in August 1987.

And it's not over yet.

Today has set the record as the wettest day in Chicago history, and (a) it's only 11am and (b) more rain is coming:

Overnight rains that approached 178 mm over northern Cook County broke several impressive Chicago records. 176 mm of precipitation has been measured at O'Hare International Airport since Midnight making today, Chicago's wettest calandar day in modern weather history.

What happens when two air conditioners together draw more than 15 amps on a 15-amp circuit? This:

(Click to see full-size.)

The graph not only shows how quickly the place warmed up when the breaker tripped Wednesday evening, but also how slowly it cooled off once I closed the breaker. The initial cliff-like dive in temperature yesterday at 5:15pm happened because after turning the AC back on, I put a box fan next to the server rack and shut down two of the servers. You can see the temperature bumped up a degree when I turned them back on around 11:15pm.

So far today the servers are staying within their safe zone, under 27.5°C. The massive thunderstorms that just pushed through, which have kept the outside temperature under 24°C so far today, has helped. Tomorrow, however, the forecast calls for 34°C again.

How long until October?

It appears the air conditioners back at IDTWHQ have failed, while I'm 1,700 km away:

The chart starts at 7pm Chicago time Tuesday. The squiggle shows the backup air conditioner cycling on and off while it's in "energy saving" mode. That stops around 2pm yesterday, when, I imagine, the backup failed. Then, at 8:30pm last night, the main seems to have stopped.

I'll be leaving San Antonio on an earlier flight. I just hope the A/C units have simply stopped, and that they'll start again when I turn them on. Chicago's forecast calls for a high of 34°C today only going down to 24°C overnight. But without cooling, Inner Drive's poor servers may not last another two hours...