Who could have predicted this?

Sunday 8 March 2026 13:03 CDT   David Braverman
ChinaIranMilitary policyPoliticsRussiaTrumpUS PoliticsWorld Politics

Other than the war with Iran that the OAFPOTUS and his droogs started a week ago, what on earth could have caused this?

Chart of crude oil prices for the 30 days ending March 6th

Anne Applebaum grits her teeth:

I don’t know what the White House expected when US and Israeli forces began bombarding Iran, but they seem not to have anticipated the global impact of their actions. The Iranian regime did not collapse quickly. Iranian drones and missiles his US bases and consultates, and also damaged civilian targets across the Gulf States, including luxury hotels, airports and energy infrastructure. The result: Hundreds of thousands of tourists and travellers got stuck because of closed airspace. Oil prices skyrocketed upwards. The gas market is in chaos, as the Qatari refinery that produces one-fifth of the world’s supply went offline.

The Chinese and the North Koreans are also watching as American air defenses are used up, and as American allies back away, and making calculations accordingly. So are the Japanese, the Taiwanese and the South Koreans. In the coming weeks, the war in Iran will shape decisions made all across Asia, and around the world. Nobody in the US administration seems to have given much thought to mitigating this kind of collateral damage, let alone the deaths and suffering of civilians in Iran. The attitude is rather let’s drop the bombs and then see what happens.

The war in Iran has profound implications for American politics too. ... Americans should be profoundly concerned about this administration’s inability to explain why the war began, and what the endgame is supposed to be. I hope it ends with a better government in Iran, but so far, again, there is no evidence that either the White House or the Israelis have thought much about that. Instead, the goals and purpose keep changing. Congressional Republicans refuse to exercise any oversight. The public is kept in the dark about important aspects of the war. The secrecy and the dissembling are features of warfare more common to dictatorships than to democracies, where public support is normally needed before a government conducts a war as broad and expensive as this one.

It doesn't help that the OAFPOTUS is an 80-year-old with a family history of Alzheimer's who exhibits symptoms of advanced frontotemporal dementia.

He keeps losing and lashes out by going bigger when he does. How many wars will we fight without any strategy or benefit to the United States before Congress pulls him out of office? I'm afraid we're going to find out.

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