The Daily Parker

Politics, Weather, Photography, and the Dog

Joe Lieberman dead at 82

Former US Senator Joe Lieberman (D, maybe?–CT) and Al Gore's running mate in 2000 has died:

Joseph I. Lieberman, the doggedly independent four-term U.S. senator from Connecticut who was the Democratic nominee for vice president in 2000, becoming the first Jewish candidate on the national ticket of a major party, died March 27 in New York City. He was 82.

The cause was complications from a fall, his family said in a statement.

Mr. Lieberman viewed himself as a centrist Democrat, solidly in his party’s mainstream with his support of abortion rights, environmental protection, gay rights and gun control. But he was also unafraid to stray from Democratic orthodoxy, most notably in his consistently hawkish stands on foreign policy.

His full-throated support of the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the increasingly unpopular war that followed doomed Mr. Lieberman’s bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004 and led to his rejection by Connecticut Democrats when he sought his fourth Senate term in 2006. He kept his seat by running that November as an independent candidate and attracting substantial support from Republican and unaffiliated voters.

His transition from Al Gore’s running mate in 2000 on the Democratic ticket to high-profile cheerleader for Republican presidential candidate John McCain eight years later was a turnaround unmatched in recent American politics.

Meanwhile, in other news:

  • Stanford University sophomore Theo Baker expresses alarm at his classmates' growing anti-rational beliefs.
  • Slate's David Zipper analyzes what the Baltimore bridge collapse will do to the city's traffic.
  • The Economist reviews the lasting influence (or surprising lack thereof) of Steven Levitt's Freakonomics books.
  • The Chicago Dept of Transportation announced major construction on Division Street that will include new protected bike lanes and replacement of two bridges.
  • The National Transportation Safety Board has released its final report on the crash of a one-third scale B-29 in Kokomo, Indiana, last year.

Finally, the Atlantic's Faith Hill wonders, why do we date the same person over and over again?

Formal operations thought, part 3

If you've enjoyed (or at least attempted) Tuesday's and Wednesday's pieces of this quiz from William Bart at the University of Minnesota, you get to finish it now:

21. All ashes are not poplars. All locusts are ashes. Therefore:

(A) All locusts are not ashes
(B) All ashes are poplars
(C) All locusts are poplars
(D) Some ashes are poplars
(E) Some locusts are not ashes
(F) All locusts are not poplars

22. If yeast rises then caustic potash is present and if mold grows
then limewater is present. Either caustic potash is not present or
limewater is not present. Therefore:

(A) Yeast does not rise
(B) Limewater is not present
(C) Either yeast does not rise or mold does not grow
(D) Limewater is present
(E) Yeast rises
(F) Yeast rises and limewater is present

23. Some antigens are serums. All serums are donors. Therefore:

(A) All donors are not antigens
(B) All donors are serums
(C) Some donors are not antigens
(D) All antigens are not serums
(E) Some donors are antigens
(F) Some donors are not serums

24. If the Hardy-Weinberg law holds then Darwinian theory is false. If
Darwinian theory is false then man is a naked ape. Therefore:

(A) The Hardy-Weinberg law holds and Darwinian theory is false
(B) The Hardy-Weinberg law holds
(C) Darwinian theory is not false
(D) The Hardy-Weinberg law does not hold
(E) If the Hardy-Weinberg law holds then man is a naked ape
(F) Either the Hardy-Weinberg law holds or man is a naked ape

25. If opah live in the Indian Ocean then bass live in the Black Sea
and if gar thrive in Lake Chad then beavers live near Lake Chad. Either
opah live in the Indian Ocean or gar thrive in Lake Chad. Therefore:

(A) Bass live in the Black Sea and beavers live near Lake Chad
(B) Bass live in the Black Sea and gar thrive in Lake Chad
(C) Bass do not live in the Black Sea
(D) Beavers do not live near Lake Chad
(E) Beavers live near Lake Chad
(F) Either bass live in the Black Sea or beavers live near Lake Chad

26. Sycamores are smaller than red elms. Sycamores are larger than
sequoias. Therefore:

(A) Sycamores are the largest of the three trees
(B) Red elms are the largest of the three trees
(C) Sequoias are larger than red elms
(D) Red elms are the smallest of the three trees
(E) Sycamores are the smallest of the three trees
(F) Sequoias are the largest of the three trees

27. Chordates are less numerous than crustaceans. Mollusks are more
numerous than crustaceans. Mollusks are less numerous than cilliates.
Therefore:

(A) Chordates are the least numerous of the four animals
(B) Ciliates are less numerous than crustaceans
(C) Chordates are more numerous than mollusks
(D) Ciliates are the least numerous of the four animals
(E) Mollusks are the least numerous of the four animals
(F) Mollusks are the most numerous of the four animals

28. Either flagellates grow in ce or sponges reproduce in icy water.
Therefore:

(A) Flagellates do not grow in ice
(B) Flagellates do not grow in ice and sponges reproduce in icy water
(C) Sponges reproduce in icy water
(D) If flagellates do not grow in ice then sponges reproduce in icy
water.
(E) Flagellages grow in ice
(F) If flagellates grow in ice then sponges reproduce in icy water

29. All blue monocots are parsnips. Therefore:

(A) If all individuals are blue then all monocots are parsnips
(B) All individuals are blue
(C) All individuals are blue monocot parsnips
(D) All individuals are monocots
(E) All individuals are either blue or monocots
(F) All individuals are parsnips

30. Oaks are not fungi if and only if oats are flowers. Therefore:

(A) If oaks are fungi then oats are not flowers
(B) Oaks are not fungi and oats are not flowers
(C) Oaks are fungi and oats are not flowers
(D) Oaks are fungi
(E) Oaks are not fungi
(F) Oats are flowers

Wednesday's answers: 11, c; 12, d; 13, d; 14, a; 15, a; 16, c; 17, e; 18, b; 19, d; 20, f.

Formal operational thought, part 2

Had fun yesterday? Try these next 10:

11. All dace are platy. Some dace are cod. Therefore:

(A) All cod are not platy
(B) Some cod are not platy
(C) Some cod are platy
(D) All platy are dace
(E) All dace are not cod
(F) Some dace are not cod

12. Some skinks are plastrons. All turtles are not skinks. Therefore:

(A) All skinks are not plastrons
(B) Some turtles are skinks
(C) All turtles are plastrons
(D) Some turtles are not plastrons
(E) Some skinks are not plastrons
(F) All skinks are turtles

13. If wasps eat haploids then fly pupae are lost. Wasps do not eat
haploids and fly pupae are not lost. Therefore:

(A) Wasps eat haploids
(B) Either wasps eat haploids or fly pup‘ are lost
(C) Fly pup‘ are lost
(D) Fly pup‘ are not lost
(E) Wasps eat haploids and fly pup‘ are lost
(F) Wasps eat haploids and fly pup‘ are not lost

14. All axolotls are bream. All catfish are not bream. Therefore:

(A) All catfish are not axolotls
(B) Some axolotls are not bream
(C) Some catfish are bream
(D) All axolotls are not bream
(E) All bream are axolotls
(F) All bream are catfish

15. Some peepers are killifish. All peepers are haddock. Therefore:

(A) Some haddock are killifish
(B) All haddock are not killifish
(C) Some haddock are not killifish
(D) All haddock are peepers
(E) All peepers are killifish
(F) Some peepers are not haddock

16. All blue wombats are skates. All skates are not nymphs. Therefore:

(A) All nymphs are blue wombats
(B) Some nymphs are blue wombats
(C) All nymphs are not blue wombats
(D) Some blue wombats are not skates
(E) All skates are blue wombats
(F) Some skates are nymphs

17. Either genes grow or dodders thrive. Genes do not grow and dodders
thrive. Therefore:

(A) Genes grow if and only if dodders thrive
(B) Genes grow and dodders thrive
(C) Genes grow
(D) If dodders thrive then genes grow
(E) Genes do not grow
(F) Genes do not grow and dodders do not thrive

18. All medaka are sea horses. All orangefish are medaka. Therefore:

(A) All medaka are not orangefish
(B) All orangefish are sea horses
(C) Some medaka are not sea horses
(D) Some orangefish are not medaka
(E) All medaka are not sea horses
(F) Some orangefish are not sea horses

19. Margays are less aquatic than ocelots. Margays are more aquatic
than penguins. Pike are less aquatic than penguins. Therefore:

(A) Margays are the least aquatic of the four animals
(B) Pike are the most aquatic of the four animals
(C) Penguins are more aquatic than ocelots
(D) Ocelots are the most aquatic of the four animals
(E) Margays are the most aquatic of the four animals
(F) Penguins are the most aquatic of the four animals

20. If water dissolves fat then acetone dissolves protein. Water
dissolves fat if and only if acetone dissolves protein. Therefore:

(A) Either water dissolves fat or acetone dissolves protein
(B) Water dissolves fat
(C) Acetone dissolves protein
(D) Water does not dissolve fat
(E) Acetone does not dissolve protein
(F) If water does not dissolve fat then acetone does not dissolve
protein.

And here are the answers from yesterday: 1, a; 2, c; 3, e; 4, a; 5, e; 6, f; 7, a; 8, a; 9, f; 10, c.

Test of formal operational thought

I found this quiz in a (virtual) pile of things from my first year at university. Have fun! Answers and more questions tomorrow. (The answers may surprise you, unless you really dig in to the logic.)

1. Either auxins are proteins or petioles grow on auxins. If auxins are
proteins then petioles grow on auxins. Therefore:

(A) Petioles grow on auxins
(B) Either auxins are not proteins or petioles do not grow on auxins
(C) If petioles grow on auxins then auxins are proteins
(D) Auxins are not proteins
(E) Auxins are petioles
(F) Auxins are proteins and petioles do not grow on auxins

2. Whelks are more colorful than periwinkles. Whelks are less colorful
than abalones. Therefore:

(A) Whelks are the most colorful of the three animals
(B) Periwinkles are more colorful than abalones
(C) Periwinkles are the least colorful of the three animals
(D) Periwinkles are the most colorful of the three animals
(E) Abalones are the least colorful of the three animals
(F) Whelks are the least colorful of the three animals

3. Worms move slower than lice and worms are smaller than mice. Worms
move faster than mice and worms are larger than lice. Therefore:

(A) Worms move the fastest and are the largest of the three animals
(B) Mice move faster than lice
(C) Mice are smaller than lice
(D) Lice move the fastest and are the largest of the three animals
(E) Lice move the fastest and are the smallest of the three animals
(F) Mice move the fastest and are the largest of the three animals

4. No individual is a tapir. Therefore:

(A) All individuals are not tapirs
(B) All individuals are tapirs and monkeys
(C) No individuals are tapirs
(D) All individuals are tapirs
(E) No individuals are not tapirs
(F) Some individuals are tapirs

5. Either birch thrive or sage die. Birch do not thrive. Therefore:

(A) Birch thrive if and only sage die
(B) Sage do not die
(C) If sage die then birch thrive
(D) Birch thrive and sage die
(E) Sage die
(F) Birch thrive and sage do not die

6. If amnions are red the chick embryos shrink. Amnions are not red and
chick embryos shrink. Therefore:

(A) If chick embryos shrink then amnions are red
(B) Amnions are red
(C) Amnions are red and chick embryos shrink
(D) Chick embryos do not shrink
(E) Amnions are red and chick embryos do not shrink
(F) Amnions are not red

7. Manatees are reptiles if and only if lemurs are birds. Therefore:

(A) If manatees are reptiles then lemurs are birds
(B) Manatees are not reptiles and lemurs are birds
(C) Manatees are reptiles and lemurs are not birds
(D) Manatees are reptiles
(E) Manatees are not reptiles
(F) Lemurs are birds

8. Pink rays are not carnivores. Therefore:

(A) If pink rays are carnivores then remoras ride pink rays
(B) Pink rays are carnivores
(C) Remoras ride on pink rays
(D) Pink rays are carnivores and remoras do not ride on pink rays
(E) Pink rays are carnivores and remoras ride on pink rays
(F) Either pink rays are carnivores or remoras ride on pink rays

9. All individuals are neither zebras nor rotifers. Therefore:

(A) All individuals are zebras
(B) All individuals are rotifers
(C) All zebras are rotifers
(D) No individuals are zebras
(E) Some individuals are zebras
(F) All individuals are not zebras and rotifers

10. Either tropisims occur in apes or taxes occur in bees. Tropisms
occur in apes and taxes occur in bees. Therefore:

(A) Taxes do not occur in bees
(B) Tropisms occur in apes and taxes do not occur in bees
(C) Tropisms occur in apes
(D) If tropisms occur in apes then taxes do not occur in bees
(E) Tropisms do not occur in apes
(F) Either tropisms do not occur in apes or taxes do not occur in bees

Fun, right?

(I have a note that the author of this quiz is William Bart at the University of Minnesota, but I cannot confirm this.)

Logic, reasoning, and SQUIRREL!

In The Daily Parker's occasional series on logical fallacies, we now come to my favorite:

Non sequitur

"It does not follow." That is, the argument does not have anything to do with the point under discussion. Sometimes non sequiturs make you wonder about the other person's sanity. Example, in poetry:

Haikus are simple
But sometimes they don't make sense
Refrigerator

If you look up "non sequitur" in the Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary, you will see this quote:

"They've won five wars where the armies that went against them froze to death. It's pretty amazing. So, we're having a good time. The economy is doing great."--President Trump, 19 July 2017.

The conclusion "the economy is doing great" has nothing to do with the Russian Army's historical prowess fighting in winter.

Then from two weeks ago: "We've got 32,000 soldiers on South Korean soil, and we've been helping them for about 82 years. And we get nothing. We get virtually nothing."

Our agreements with South Korea have nothing to do getting anything from South Korea other than protecting our own interests in the region. In fact, South Korea would prefer not to have thousands of foreign troops on its soil. (Also, we haven't had troops there since 1937.)

And the day before that: "We want to allow millions of people to come [into the U.S. legally] because we need them... because we have many companies coming into our country. They're pouring in... We have companies coming in from Japan, all over Europe, all over Asia. They're opening up companies here. They need people to work... Thousands and thousands of companies are leaving China now because of the tariffs."

I mean, where does one begin? I'll leave that as an exercise for the reader.

What are you really asking?

Time for another logical fallacy, this time one commonly felt but not always understood.

Plurium interrogationum

"Many questions" or "complex question" means that a sentence appears to contain a single question but really rests on implicit assumptions that may obviate it. Put more simply, someone asks you a question that assumes something else as if you've already agreed to it.

The classic example, "when did you stop beating your wife?", contains two distinct parts requiring two distinct answers. First, "Have you ever beaten your wife?" Second, "If so, when did you stop?"

This fallacy comes in half a dozen flavors, which goes beyond the scope of The Daily Parker, as my goal is simply to summarize and list them. The Philosophy Department at South Carolina's Lander University has an excellent description of all the permutations of plurium interrogationum.

Dying for lack of a cause

Continuing my series on logical fallacies, we come now to "non causa pro causa," or false cause.

Post hoc ergo propter hoc

"After this, therefore because of this." The argument attempts to attribute cause to the thing that happened before. (See, also, "correlation is not causation.") This is essentially where superstitions come from.

Example: "I've created a million jobs since I'm president," a politician claimed after six months in office. It turns out, that job growth was consistent with (but slightly lower than) job growth under the previous office holder going back six years, making it improbable that the politician had anything to do with the jobs.

Another example: "Since taking office I have been very strict on Commercial Aviation. Good news - it was just reported that there were Zero deaths in 2017, the best and safest year on record!" By that criterion, so were 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010. In fact, regulations governing air-transport flying were tightened in 2013.

Reductio ad absurdum

A "reduction to the absurd" tries to show that an assumption is false if a contradiction can be drawn from it. Usually, however, one or more of the premises of the argument is false.

The classic example uses a pair of syllogisms:

P1: A statesman acts in the public interest.
P2: Senator Jones is a statesman.
C1: Therefore, Senator Jones acts in the public interest. (Valid but possibly untrue.)

P3: Statesmen do not campaign for public office.
P4: Senator Jones campaigns for public office.
C2: Therefore, Senator Jones is not a statesman. (Valid but probably untrue given C1.)

The problem is probably premise #3. It's certainly the weakest link in the chain.

Another example: "America is the greatest country on earth, and we're making America great again." But...

Final example: "If your orders are always followed, then why was Private Santiago's life in danger?"

I'll leave it as an exercise to the reader to tease out the syllogisms of the last two examples.

Next time, a lot of questions, and squirrels.

Scott Adams demonstrates bad-faith arguments

As I continue my series on logical fallacies, I'd like to note cartoonist Scott Adams' latest blog post.

For years, Adams has talked about how people see what they want to see in the president's speech and actions, but only he and other Trump supporters deal with reality. He claims that people who believe the president is a racist are hallucinating, and that the media perpetuate this hoax.

The post contains extensive demonstrations of many, perhaps all, of the fallacies the complete series will discuss. He also lies. I would actually call the post as a whole "gaslighting," from its main premise on down to the details he cites. (He concludes by saying, "Given the subjectivity of reality, [critics] won’t be able to read this blog post without being triggered into cognitive dissonance," which, if you has experience with abusive relationships, should make your skin crawl.)

Adams has a good command of English and propaganda. He knows what he's doing. So I'm going to use Adams' post from today as a final exam of sorts for the entire series on fallacies. Should be fun.

What goes around...

Continuing to look at material fallacies, we come to one of the most misunderstood and one of the most common.

Petitio principii

"Begging the question" does not mean that a question is hanging in the air, waiting for someone to ask it. (That's "raising the question.") It means that an argument rests on itself, as a foregone conclusion. As Aristotle defined it, "Begging or assuming the point at issue consists (to take the expression in its widest sense) [of] failing to demonstrate the required proposition."

A famous example is the notion that "gay marriage isn't marriage because marriage is a union between a man and a woman." Um...no, see, you're using your own argument to support your own argument. How you define marriage may not actually be the correct (or legal) definition of marriage.

Or take a noted politician, who in January 2017 said "the news is fake because so much of the news is fake." He didn't even bother to cover up the abuse of logic.

Circulus in probando

A "circular argument" is similar, but the argument comes back around to itself rather than resting on itself. Example: "Smart people vote for my party, because it's a wise choice. And you can tell they're smart people, because they vote for my party." Round and round it goes.

Circular arguments differ from begging the question because there are more steps involved. Usually someone begs the question by using different words that mean the same thing; in a circular argument, you go around the circle.

Next time won't follow, absurdly.

You're accidentally wrong

Last week I identified and demonstrated seven fallacies of irrelevant conclusion, by which a person tries to win an argument using language that has nothing to do with the point being argued. Those fallacies actually fall under the larger heading "material fallacies." A material fallacy makes an error of argument, in contrast to a formal fallacy which makes an error of logic.

Before I get into specific kinds of material fallacies, let me describe the basic principle of syllogism. A syllogism has a major premise, a minor premise, and a conclusion. Each of the premises has a common term; we call this "distribution" in that the common term is "distributed" between both premises. Without distribution, the syllogism is invalid.

Note that "invalid" means the logic is wrong; "untrue" means the conclusion is wrong.

Here's an example of a valid and true syllogism:

Major premise (MP): Men are mortal.
Minor premise (mp): David is a man.
Conclusion (C): Therefore, David is mortal.

The word "man" is distributed between the premises, making the conclusion valid. Since the major premise is true for all men, and the minor premise is true, then the conclusion is true.

So let's look at two kinds of fallacies where the logic is sound but the conclusions might be false.

Agrumentum per accidens (secundum quid)

An "argument by accident" suggests that because something applies in general, it applies in this specific case. Here, for example, is an argument you may have heard from a political leader in the past:

MP: People from Mexico have committed crimes. Generally true–but not in all cases.
mp: These people are from Mexico. Specifically true.
C: Therefore, these people have committed crimes. False.

This is a material fallacy, because it turns out while this syllogism is perfectly valid, it's just not true. That is, it's false (not to mention racist and offensive) because while there are some people from Mexico who have committed crimes, not all of them have; therefore, it overgeneralizes to say that any random group of Mexicans has committed crimes.

Another one:

MP: Prosecutors charge people with obstruction of justice when they find evidence of it. Generally true.
mp: The president has not been charged with obstruction of justice. True.
C: Therefore, there is no evidence that the president obstructed justice. False.

Again, arguing from a generality to a specific case is logically valid, but in this specific case, the president has not been charged with a crime despite the evidence, not because no one found any.

Converse accident (hasty generalization)

This fallacy comes from thinking a specific case represents the general case. This time the conclusion may be true, but probably isn't, and it may also be invalid:

MP: Health care is a complicated subject. True.
mp: I didn't know that health care was a complicated subject. True.
C: Therefore, "nobody knew health care was complicated." False.

In this case, the speaker takes a specific case of ignorance (his own) and incorrectly infers that everyone else has the same lack of basic policy competence.

Another example: "Another historic trade blunder was the catastrophe known as NAFTA. I have met the men and women of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Hampshire, and many other States whose dreams were shattered by NAFTA."

While NAFTA may have caused unfortunate consequences for the men and women with whom the president spoke, to say that it was generally bad for the country as a whole overgeneralizes from those few examples.

Next time: we'll go around in circles, because that's how I roll.