Paul Krugman's column (sub.req.) today offers a bleak assessment of 2007:
Right now, statistical models based on the historical correlation between interest rates and recessions give roughly even odds that we're about to experience a formal recession. And since even a slowdown that doesn’t formally qualify as a recession can lead to a sharp rise in unemployment, the odds are very good—maybe 2 to 1—that 2007 will be a very tough year.
Luckily, we’ve got good leadership for the coming economic storm: the White House is occupied by a man who’s ideologically flexible, listens to a wide variety of views, and understands that policy has to be based on careful analysis, not gut instincts. Oh, wait.
I feel better; how about you?
As hoped, Anne sent this photo of Parker seeing his first fire. What a big day for the little guy!
This morning Parker hit a couple of huge milestones. First, as of today we've had Parker for three months. That's, what, almost two dog years? And my how he's grown:
And then, almost in celebration of the anniversary, Parker's universe changed overnight, causing at first some consternation, then glee. This morning Parker saw snow for the first time:
Anne reported that he first wouldn't go near it, then he probed it with his paw. At that moment there was a thunderclap, which rattled him. But after only a minute or two, he decided that it was kind of like the beach, and besides, he really had to go, so in he went.
All of this comes about because the first major snowstorm of the season has hit Chicago. By 6:00 CT (1200 UTC) we had 51 mm (2 in) of snow on the ground; now we have about 100 mm (4 in), and the storm still has more to dump on us. Here's the most recent radar image, clearly showing the center of the low off to our east, which means we've got stiff (30 km/h, 18 mph) north winds blowing snow down our necks:
Those of us old enough to remember the snowstorm of 1 December 1978 feel a little apprehensive. That day we got about 150 mm (6 in) of snow, followed by another 2.3 meters (90 in) over the next three months. The shopping center near my house had snowpiles as late as May 1st. This winter could easily be like 1978-79, because all the same conditions could exist: warmth, moisture, and a jet stream that stays just south of us.
In any event, Parker and the few stalwarts (Dexter, Louie, and Key) who showed up to the park this morning will have a lot of fun this winter. Anne and I will be picking up some extra gloves and long underwear just as soon as we shovel the car out.
Update: Anne, who quite justifiably is working from home today, just reported that Parker not only got to see snow for the first time today, but now he's seeing fire for the first time. Perhaps she'll send a photo?
From Australia, via Poynter:
The annual Walkley Awards for journalism were rocked by an attack on stage on Thursday night at the Crown Casino in Melbourne.
Controversial crikey.com.au writer Stephen Mayne was attacked by Sunday Telegraph columnist Glenn Milne.
Mayne had just finished awarding the best business news report to the Australian Financial Review's Morgan Mellish when Milne rushed up onto the stage and accosted Mayne, pushing him off the platform and onto the floor.
Why doesn't anything this exciting happen at American awards shows?
My poor couch. I have no idea why Parker wants to kill the Ikea couch I've had for almost ten years, but he does. He has now started working on the main cushions, having tired of the armrests and the pillows. Only, he has to work a bit to get there:
On a related note, does anyone need a slightly-worn blue denim couch? Near mint condition!
Bit of trivia: Yesterday's Daily Parker was my 500th blog post of the year.
Parker stayed home today, which is why today's Daily Parker includes perhaps more personal information than I generally share. I have a spare laptop, so I was able to set up the ParkerCam in our bedroom today. So here he is, in his Safe Place, proving that he's cuter than all get-up even when he doesn't know anyone is watching:
This shot is from earlier today. I didn't use a more recent shot because the little darling found a pair of my boxers, and that is simply too personal for this blog.
Finally, for you weather junkies, here's the current temperature map, which you can compare with one from this morning:
The cold front has arrived a little earlier than expected. I'm running around Chicago between meetings, and the temperature has dropped from 14°C (58°F) to 9°C (49°F) in the past hour. I should point out that I left my coat at home this morning, too. Brr.
The temperature is holding at 14°C (58°F) right now, but I have a feeling it's about to cool off considerably:
For comparison, it's 8°C (47°F) in Rockford, which is about 100 km (60 mi) from here; 5°C (41°F) in the Quad Cities (250 km, 150 mi); and already -2°C (29°F) in Des Moines, 450 km (300 mi) away.
The temperature change could be staggering. Kansas City has seen a 22°C (40°F) drop in the past 24 hours, from 20°C (68°F) to -2°C (29°F):
Yum-O!
The latest from the best president we have:
"There is one thing I'm not going to do. I am not going to pull our troops off the battlefield before the mission is complete," Bush said in a keynote speech at the University of Latvia just before a summit of the NATO defence alliance.
(Emphasis mine.) What about this, though? It's all so confusing.
(Via Talking Points Memo.)
It's still 16°C (61°F) in Chicago, which is more like September than November. But apparently there's a change in the air:
Can't wait. But for now, I'll enjoy these wonderful temperatures.
As promised, I brought both the dog and a camera to the Dawes Park dog beach this afternoon. (I forgot bags though. Oops.) It's a freaky-warm 16°C (61°F) today, so while Parker and I both found it a little too chilly for a dip, we both had fun with the other dogs (including his friend Louie from his morning play group). Here he is conteplating the vastness of Lake Michigan:
A little later, after some heavy wrestling with an American bulldog-boxer mix named Quincy, Parker seemed pretty happy (and oblivious to the sandy slobber all over his body):
Now he's back at Inner Drive World Headquarters dreaming about squirrels and liver treats.